Saturday 12 November 2011

Which Type of Analysis is Best?


Which Type of Analysis is Best?
Ahhhh, the million dollar question....
Throughout your journey as an aspiring forex trader you will find strong advocates for each type of analysis. Do not be fooled by these one-sided extremists! One is not better than the other...they are all just different ways to look at the market.

At the end of the day, you should trade based on the type of analysis you are most comfortable and profitable with.
To recap, technical analysis is the study of price movement on the charts while fundamental analysis takes a look at how the country's economy is doing.
Market sentiment analysis determines whether the market is bullish or bearish on the current or future fundamental outlook.

Fundamental factors shape sentiment, while technical analysis helps us visualize that sentiment and apply a framework for our trades.
Those three work hand-in-hand-in-hand to help you come up with good trade ideas. All the historical price action and economic figures are there - all you have to do is put on your thinking cap and put those analytical skills to the test!

in order to become a true forex master you will need to know how to effectively use these three types of analysis.

Don't believe us?
Let us give you an example of how focusing on only one type of analysis can turn into a disaster.
Let's say that you're looking at your charts and you find a good trading opportunity.
You get all excited thinking about the money that's going to be raining down from the sky.
You say to yourself, "Man, I've never seen a more perfect trading opportunity in GBP/USD. I love my charts. Mwah. Now show me the money!"
You then proceed to buy GBP/USD with a big fat smile on your face (the kind where all your teeth are showing).

But wait! All of a sudden the trade makes a 100 pip move in the OTHER DIRECTION! Little did you know, one of the major banks in London filed for bankruptcy! Suddenly, everyone's sentiment towards Britain's market turns sour and everyone trades in the opposite direction!
Your big fat smile turns into mush and you start getting angry at your charts. You throw your computer on the ground and begin to pulverize it. You just lost a bunch of money, and now your computer is broken into a billion pieces.

And it's all because you completely ignored fundamental analysis and sentimental analysis.
(Note: This was not based on a real story. This did not happen to us. We were never this naive. We were always smart traders.... From the overused sarcasm, we think you get the picture.)
Ok, ok, so the story was a little over-dramatized, but you get the point.
Remember how your mother used to tell you as a kid that too much of anything is never good?

Well you might've thought that was just hogwash back then but in forex, the same applies when deciding which type of analysis to use.
Don't rely on just one.
Instead, you must learn to balance the use of all of them. It is only then that you can really get the most out of your trading.

Types of Charts
Let's take a look at the three most popular types of charts:
Line chart
Bar chart
Candlestick chart
Now, we'll explain each of the charts, and let you know what you should know about each of them.
Line Charts
A simple line chart draws a line from one closing price to the next closing price. When strung together with a line, we can see the general price movement of a currency pair over a period of time.
Here is an example of a line chart for EUR/USD:


Bar Charts
A bar chart is a little more complex. It shows the opening and closing prices, as well as the highs and lows. The bottom of the vertical bar indicates the lowest traded price for that time period, while the top of the bar indicates the highest price paid.
The vertical bar itself indicates the currency pair's trading range as a whole.
The horizontal hash on the left side of the bar is the opening price, and the right-side horizontal hash is the closing price.
Here is an example of a bar chart for EUR/USD:


Take note, throughout our lessons, you will see the word "bar" in reference to a single piece of data on a chart.
A bar is simply one segment of time, whether it is one day, one week, or one hour. When you see the word 'bar' going forward, be sure to understand what time frame it is referencing.
Bar charts are also called "OHLC" charts, because they indicate the Open, the High, the Low, and the Close for that particular currency.

Candlesticks Charts
Candlestick chart show the same information as a bar chart, but in a prettier, graphic format.
Candlestick bars still indicate the high-to-low range with a vertical line.
However, in candlestick charting, the larger block (or body) in the middle indicates the range between the opening and closing prices. Traditionally, if the block in the middle is filled or colored in, then the currency closed lower than it opened.

In the following example, the 'filled color' is black. For our 'filled' blocks, the top of the block is the opening price, and the bottom of the block is the closing price. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, then the block in the middle will be "white" or hollow or unfilled.

Here is an example of a candlestick chart for EUR/USD. Isn't it pretty?


The purpose of candlestick charting is strictly to serve as a visual aid, since the exact same information appears on an OHLC bar chart. The advantages of candlestick charting are:
Candlesticks are easy to interpret, and are a good place for beginners to start figuring out chart analysis.
Candlesticks are easy to use! Your eyes adapt almost immediately to the information in the bar notation. Plus, research shows that visuals help in studying, it might help with trading as well!
Candlesticks and candlestick patterns have cool names such as the shooting star, which helps you to remember what the pattern means.
Candlesticks are good at identifying marketing turning points - reversals from an uptrend to a downtrend or a downtrend to an uptrend.

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